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JUNYI LIANG

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While the service industry is generally considered a low-carbon sector, it contributes significantly to global carbon emissions. However, such emissions have typically relied on production-based evaluations without accounting for emissions embodied in international trade. Here, this paper estimates the consumption-based emissions (CBE) of the service industry and investigates the flows of embodied emissions globally using a Multi-regional Input-output model. Structural path analysis (SPA) and decomposition (SPD) methods are used to explore emission reduction paths and the driving factors. Our results show that the CBE of the global service industry not only increased by 63% but now comprised approximately over 30% of global total emissions, with the public and welfare services, health services sectors contributing the most to emissions growth. The consumption-based carbon intensity of the global service industry declined markedly, or nearly one-quarter of global carbon intensity. Advanced countries such as Japan, the UK, and the USA, were identified as the leading net importers of embodied service industry emissions, with air transport and water transport being the primary sources of carbon inflow. Russia was the principal net exporter of emissions. China altered from a net exporter of emissions to a net importer. The results reveal that the second layer had a more pronounced influence on the emissions than other layers, although the contribution of higher layers to emissions steadily increased. Emission intensity effect promoted emissions declines, while the increasing consumption level restrained such decreases. This study aims to provide valuable insights into reducing the emissions of the global service industry.