Background Asthma is a heterogenous airway disease characterized by multiple phenotypes. Unbiased identification of these phenotypes is paramount for optimizing asthma management. Objectives To identify and characterize asthma phenotypes based on a broad set of attributes using a novel machine learning approach in a representative sample of Swedish adults. Methods Deep learning clustering was used to derive asthma phenotypes in a sample of 1,895 subjects aged 16-75, drawn from the ongoing West Sweden Asthma Study. The algorithm integrated 47 variables encompassing demographics, risk factors, asthma triggers, pulmonary function, disease severity, allergy, and comorbidity profiles. The optimal clustering solution was selected by combining statistical metrics and clinical interpretation. Results A four-cluster solution was determined to reliably represent the data, resulting in distinct phenotypes described as: (1) troublesome, late-onset, non-atopic asthma with smoking ( n=458, 24.2%); 2) female-dominated early adult-onset asthma ( n=545, 28.7%); 3) adult-onset asthma with high inflammation ( n=358, 18.9%); and 4) early-onset, mild, atopic asthma ( n=534, 28.2%). The phenotypes also differed with respect to demographics, risk factors, asthma triggers, pulmonary function, symptom profiles, and markers of inflammation. Current asthma was more common in phenotypes with later age of asthma onset than phenotypes with early onset. Conclusion Four clinically meaningful asthma phenotypes, distinguishable by age of onset, severity, risk factors, and prognosis, were found in Swedish adults. This provides a setting for future research to profile the immunological basis of the phenotypes, and further our understanding of their pathophysiology, therapeutic possibilities, future clinical outcomes, and societal burden.

Petri Räisänen

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Background: The prevalence of asthma has increased both among children and adults during the latter half of the 20th century. The prevalence among adults is affected by the incidence of asthma in childhood but also in adulthood. Time trends in asthma incidence are poorly studied. The aim was to study the incidence of asthma among adults from 1996-2006 and 2006-2016, and compare the risk factor patterns. Methods: Within the Obstructive Lung Disease in Northern Sweden (OLIN) studies, two randomly selected population-based samples in ages 20-69 years participated in postal questionnaire surveys about asthma in 1996 (n=7104, 85%) and 2006 (n=6165, 77%), respectively. A 10-year follow-up of the two cohorts with the same validated questionnaire was performed, and n=5709 and n=4552, respectively, responded. Different definitions of population at risk were used in the calculations of asthma incidence. The protocol followed a study performed 1986 to 1996 in the same area. Results: The crude incidence rate of physician-diagnosed asthma was 4.4/1000/year (men 3.8, women 5.5) from 1996-2006, and 4.8/1000/year (men 3.7, women 6.2) from 2006-2016. When correcting for possible under-diagnosis at study entry, the incidence rate was 2.4/1000/year from 1996-2006 and 2.6/1000/year from 2006-2016. The incidence rates were similar across age groups. Allergic rhino-conjunctivitis was the main risk factor for incident asthma in both observation periods (risk ratios 2.4-2.6). Conclusions: The incidence of asthma among adults has been stable over the last two decades, and on similar level since the 1980s. The high incidence contributes to the increase in asthma prevalence.