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\begin{document}

\title{Harmful \emph{Ostreopsis cf. ovata} blooms could extend in time span
with climate change in the Western Mediterranean Sea.}



\author[1]{Salome Fabri-Ruiz}%
\author[2]{Elisa Berdalet}%
\author[3]{Caroline Ulses}%
\author[4]{Samuel Somot}%
\author[2]{Magda Vila}%
\author[5]{Rodolphe Lemée}%
\author[5]{Jean-Olivier Irisson}%
\affil[1]{DECOD (Ecosystem Dynamics and Sustainability), IFREMER, INRAE, L'Institut Agro, }%
\affil[2]{Instituto de Ciencias del Mar}%
\affil[3]{Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS), Université de Toulouse, CNES, CNRS, IRD, UT3}%
\affil[4]{CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS}%
\affil[5]{Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 18, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The Mediterranean Sea is a region threatened by fast environmental
changes and high coastal human impacts. Over the last decade, recurrent
blooms of the harmful dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. ovata have been
recorded in many Mediterranean beaches. Here we investigate whether the
spatial-temporal distribution of this microalga and the frequency of its
blooms could be altered in future regional climate change scenarios,
with a special focus in the Western basin. An ecological niche model
forced by physical and biogeochemical high-resolution climate change
simulations under the strong greenhouse gas emission trajectory (RCP8.5)
was used to characterize how O. cf. ovata may respond to projected
conditions and how its distribution could shift in this plausible
future. Before being applied to the niche model, the future climate
change simulations are further refined by using a statistical adaptation
method (Cumulative Distribution Function transform) to improve the
representativity of the environmental parameters. Our results depict
that O. cf. ovata abundances are driven by temperature (optimum 23-26
\selectlanguage{ngerman}°C), high salinity (\textgreater{} 38 psu) and high inorganic nutrient
concentrations (nitrate \textgreater{} 0.25 mmol N·m-3 and phosphate
\textgreater{} 0.035 mmol P·m-3). Future projections suggest no changes
in bloom intensity for mid- and end-century. Nevertheless high spatial
disparities in future abundances are observed.. Namely, O. cf. ovata
abundances could increase in the Mediterranean coasts of France, Spain
and the Adriatic Sea while a decrease is expected in the Tyrrhenian Sea.
The bloom period could also be enlarged, starting earlier and extending
later in the year, which could have important consequences on marine
ecosystems, human health and economy. From a methodological point of
view, this study highlights good practices of ecological niche models in
the context of climate change to identify sensitive areas for current
and future harmful algal blooms.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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\verb`18_MS_draft.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/771449/articles/854396-harmful-ostreopsis-cf-ovata-blooms-could-extend-in-time-span-with-climate-change-in-the-western-mediterranean-sea}\selectlanguage{english}
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