Climatic Impact on Pangolin Distribution Dynamics
Projections derived from the ensemble model under the SSP1-2.6 scenario suggest a sustained and increasing presence of Chinese pangolin habitats in the northwestern areas of Mingxi County through the period 2021 to 2040 (Figure 4A). The SSP5-8.5 scenario forecasts corroborate these trends (details presented in Figure 4 and the Supplementary Table). Under the SSP126 framework, the suitable habitat for the pangolin is projected to undergo an expansion of 378 km², while simultaneously experiencing a contraction of 110 km² by 2040. The contraction is primarily forecasted in western locales, whereas eastern regions, particularly the eastern parts of Xiayang Township and Hufang Town, are anticipated to become focal zones of habitat expansion (Figure 4B).
DISCUSSION
This research represented a pioneering assessment of the distribution and conservation status of Manis pentadactyla at a detailed county-level scale, integrating field surveys, remote sensing data, and ecological modeling. This novel approach established a research paradigm for conducting targeted studies on endangered species such as the Chinese pangolin at the county level and devising specific conservation strategies. Our findings indicated that while current protected areas covered 50% of suitable habitats for the pangolin, a significant portion of highly and moderately suitable habitats remained under-protected. This underscored the urgency of implementing immediate conservation actions in prioritized administrative villages.