Climate change, a global threat of utmost significance, has the
potential to trigger shifts in biodiversity distribution and the
emergence of novel ecological communities. For species with limited
dispersal abilities or geographical barriers within their range, niche
conservatism can further constrain their ability to colonize and thrive
in future suitable habitats, rendering them more vulnerable to the
effects of global climate change. In this study, an ensemble modeling
framework and climatic niche dynamics analysis were employed to forecast
the impact of climate change on climatic niche dimensions and
transferability of two indicator species, namely, Ziziphus spina-christi
and Ziziphus nummularia, in Iran. Our analysis revealed that, under
optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios, the habitat
suitability for Z. spina-christi will expand during 2041-2070 and
2071-2100, predominantly towards higher latitudes. In contrast, Z.
nummularia is anticipated to experience a general decline in habitat
suitability during the same periods and climate scenarios, resulting in
the loss of portions of its southern range. Our examination of climatic
niche dynamics unveiled a relatively low observed niche overlap between
the two species. Randomization tests further underscored the adherence
of these species to their historical niches, suggesting challenges in
adapting to changing climatic conditions. The integration of predictive
models and niche dynamics analysis indicates that these species may
encounter difficulties migrating to the tracked niches in distant
habitats due to their preserved niches. Given the high sensitivity of
arid ecosystems to environmental disturbances and slow recovery rates,
the repercussions for arid land biodiversity are indeed profound and
irrevocable. Conservation and management measures, including identifying
priority areas and creating artificial habitats, are crucial to protect
these species' habitats.The study's conclusions are valuable for
biodiversity conservation authorities, local stakeholders, and
individuals dedicated to preserving Ziziphus habitats within the study
area.