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\begin{document}

\title{Endo-exo framework for a unifying classification of episodic landslide
movements}



\author[1]{Qinghua Lei}%
\author[2]{Didier Sornette}%
\affil[1]{Uppsala University}%
\affil[2]{SUSTech}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 25, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Landslides exhibit intermittent gravity-driven downslope movements
developing over days to years before a possible major collapse, commonly
boosted by external events like precipitations and earthquakes. The
reasons behind these episodic movements and how they relate to the final
instability remain poorly understood. Here, we develop a novel
``endo-exo'' theory to quantitatively diagnose landslide dynamics,
capturing the interplay between exogenous stressors such as rainfall and
endogenous damage/healing processes. We predict four distinct types of
episodic landslide dynamics (endogenous/exogenous-subcritical/critical),
characterized by power law relaxations with different exponents, all
related to a single parameter~\selectlanguage{greek}\emph{ϑ} . \selectlanguage{english}These predictions are tested on
the dataset of the Preonzo landslide, which exhibited multi-year
episodic movements prior to a catastrophic collapse. All its episodic
activities can be accounted for within this classification with
~\selectlanguage{greek}\emph{ϑ}\selectlanguage{english}[?]\selectlanguage{english}0.45\selectlanguage{ngerman}±0.1 , providing strong support for our parsimonious
theory. We find that the final collapse of this landslide is clearly
preceded over 1-2 months by an increased frequency of medium/large
velocities, signaling the transition into a catastrophic regime with
amplifying positive feedbacks.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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