Objectives
Using public data sources, the following questions will be addressed for the daily reported numbers of confirmed COVID 19 cases in Germany:
  1. To what extent are observed variations in the number of newly confirmed cases per day determined by the overall number of tests conducted?
  2. Can changes in public mobility patterns - an indicator for compliance with “stay at home rules” - explain the observed decrease in daily number of confirmed cases after March 12, 2020?
  3. Does the empirical curve of daily confirmed COVID 19 cases show any other indications for effects of political milestone decisions on public health measures?
  4. Can the number of confirmed cases per day serve as a reliable basis for estimates of basic reproduction rate and subsequent scenario modelling? Which sources of bias remain, that cannot be statistically eliminated, and how severe would they impact the current understanding of major disease characteristics?