Objectives
Using public data sources, the following questions will be addressed for
the daily reported numbers of confirmed COVID 19 cases in Germany:
- To what extent are observed variations in the number of newly
confirmed cases per day determined by the overall number of tests
conducted?
- Can changes in public mobility patterns - an indicator for compliance
with “stay at home rules” - explain the observed decrease in daily
number of confirmed cases after March 12, 2020?
- Does the empirical curve of daily confirmed COVID 19 cases show any
other indications for effects of political milestone decisions on
public health measures?
- Can the number of confirmed cases per day serve as a reliable basis
for estimates of basic reproduction rate and subsequent scenario
modelling? Which sources of bias remain, that cannot be statistically
eliminated, and how severe would they impact the current understanding
of major disease characteristics?