Fig. 5. Projected change in temperature. Spatial distribution of change in annual mean temperature in 2071-2100 with respect to 1976-2005, derived from (a) 31 CMIP5 GCMs and (b) 29 CMIP6 GCMs. Superimposed hatching indicates that more than 80% of models agree on the sign of the change. Zonal-mean changes are indicated by the right corner for each panel. Thick solid blue line in each panel indicates an ensemble mean of CMIP6 models.
The projected warming due to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere could enhance the north-south disparity in the number of outdoor days (Fig. 6). Consistent with observed trends in the historical record, we project relatively large drops in the tropical regions, and a significant increase in the northern high-latitude regions towards the end of the century. It implies that countries in the global south (for example, Colombia, Ivory Coast, Sudan, Indonesia, and Bangladesh), that are contributing less to the emissions of greenhouse gases (Fig. S3), are disproportionately affected by the negative impacts of climate change through reduced outdoor days (Fig. 7 and Fig. S4 derived from CMIP5 models). Meanwhile, developed countries, such as Canada, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan, are marginally affected or benefit from climate change by gaining more outdoor days (Fig. 7 and Fig. S4 derived from CMIP5 models).