Fig. 5. Projected change in temperature. Spatial distribution of change
in annual mean temperature in 2071-2100 with respect to 1976-2005,
derived from (a) 31 CMIP5 GCMs and (b) 29 CMIP6 GCMs. Superimposed
hatching indicates that more than 80% of models agree on the sign of
the change. Zonal-mean changes are indicated by the right corner for
each panel. Thick solid blue line in each panel indicates an ensemble
mean of CMIP6 models.
The projected warming due to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere could enhance the north-south disparity in the number of
outdoor days (Fig. 6). Consistent with observed trends in the historical
record, we project relatively large drops in the tropical regions, and a
significant increase in the northern high-latitude regions towards the
end of the century. It implies that countries in the global south (for
example, Colombia, Ivory Coast, Sudan, Indonesia, and Bangladesh), that
are contributing less to the emissions of greenhouse gases (Fig. S3),
are disproportionately affected by the negative impacts of climate
change through reduced outdoor days (Fig. 7 and Fig. S4 derived from
CMIP5 models). Meanwhile, developed countries, such as Canada, France,
the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan, are marginally affected or
benefit from climate change by gaining more outdoor days (Fig. 7 and
Fig. S4 derived from CMIP5 models).