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\begin{document}

\title{Ensemble Storm Surge Modelling of the Goro Lagoon (Adriatic Sea,
Northern Italy)}



\author[1]{Jacopo Alessandri}%
\author[1]{Nadia Pinardi}%
\author[2]{Ivan Federico}%
\author[3]{Andrea Valentini}%
\affil[1]{University of Bologna}%
\affil[2]{CMCC  - EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change}%
\affil[3]{Arpae Emilia-Romagna, Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service (Arpae-SIMC)}%


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  \date{May 15, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
We developed a storm surge Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the Goro
lagoon (GOLFEM-EPS) in the Northern Adriatic Sea. The lagoon is
threatened every year by storm surge events with consequent risks for
human life and economic losses. We show the advantages and limitations
of an EPS with 45 members, using a very high-resolution unstructured
grid finite element model. For five recent storm surge events, the EPS
generally improves the forecast skill on the third forecast day compared
to just one deterministic forecast, while they are similar in the first
two days. A weighting system is implemented to compute an improved
ensemble mean. The uncertainties regarding sea level due to
meteorological forcing, river run-off, initial and lateral boundaries
are evaluated, and the different forecasts are used to compose the EPS
members. We conclude that the largest uncertainty is in the initial and
lateral boundary fields at different time and space scales, including
the tidal components.%
\end{abstract}%



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\textbf{Hosted file}

\verb`essoar.10512726.1.docx`  available at \url{https://authorea.com/users/578391/articles/620356-ensemble-storm-surge-modelling-of-the-goro-lagoon-adriatic-sea-northern-italy}

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