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\begin{document}

\title{Metabolic constraints on the body size scaling of extreme population
densities}



\author[1]{Angel Segura}%
\author[2]{Gonzalo Perera}%
\affil[1]{Facultad de Ciencias}%
\affil[2]{Universidad de la República, Centro Universitario Regional Este, Modelización y Análisis de Recursos Naturales, Uruguay}%


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  \date{June 16, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Pest outbreaks, harmful algal blooms, and population collapses are
extreme events with critical consequences for ecosystems, highlighting
the importance of deciphering the driving ecological mechanisms
underlying extreme events. By combining the generalized extreme value
(GEV) theory from statistics and the hypothesis of a resource-limited
metabolic restriction to population abundance, we evaluated theoretical
predictions on the size-scaling and variance of extreme population
abundance. Phytoplankton data from the L4 station in the English Channel
showed a negative size scaling of the expected value of maxima, whose
confidence interval included the predicted metabolic scaling (a = --1).
We showed a humped pattern in variance with maxima at intermediate
sizes. These results are consistent with the bounded abundance of
small-sized populations that are subjected to strong grazing and with
the expected decrease in variance towards large sizes. This approach
provides unbiased return times, thereby improving the prediction
accuracy of the timing of bloom formation, and describes a coherent
framework in which to explore extreme population densities in natural
communities.%
\end{abstract}%



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