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\begin{document}

\title{Impact of warmer sea surface temperature on the global pattern of
intense convection: insights from a global storm resolving model}



\author[1]{Kai-Yuan Cheng}%
\author[2]{Lucas Harris}%
\author[3]{Christopher S. Bretherton}%
\author[1]{Timothy M Merlis}%
\author[1]{Maximilien Bolot}%
\author[4]{Linjiong Zhou}%
\author[5]{Alex Kaltenbaugh}%
\author[6]{Spencer Koncius Clark}%
\author[1]{Stephan Fueglistaler}%
\affil[1]{Princeton University}%
\affil[2]{GFDL}%
\affil[3]{Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence}%
\affil[4]{Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory}%
\affil[5]{UCAR}%
\affil[6]{Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence / NOAA-GFDL}%


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  \date{June 18, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Intense convection (updrafts exceeding 10 m[?]s\textsuperscript{-1}) plays
an essential role in severe weather and Earth's energy balance. Despite
its importance, how the global pattern of intense convection changes in
response to warmed climates remains unclear, as simulations from
traditional climate models are too coarse to simulate intense
convection. Here we take advantage of a kilometer-scale global storm
resolving model and conduct year-long simulations of a control run,
forced by analyzed sea surface temperature (SST), and one with a 4-K
increase in SST for comparison. Comparisons show that the increased SST
enhances the frequency of intense convection globally with large spatial
and seasonal variations. Increases in the intense convection frequency
do not necessarily reflect increases in convective available potential
energy (CAPE). Results are also compared with traditional climate model
projections. Changes in the spatial pattern of intense convection are
associated with changes in planetary circulation.%
\end{abstract}%



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