Ganymede is the only Solar System moon known to generate a permanent magnetic field. Jovian plasma motions around Ganymede create an upstream magnetopause, where energy flows are thought to be driven by magnetic reconnection. Simulations indicate Ganymedean reconnection events may be transient, but the nature of magnetopause reconnection at Ganymede remains poorly understood, requiring an assessment of reconnection onset theory. We present an analytical model of steady-state conditions at Ganymede’s magnetopause, from which the first Ganymedean reconnection onset assessment is conducted. We find that reconnection may occur wherever Ganymede’s closed magnetic field encounters Jupiter’s ambient magnetic field, regardless of variations in magnetopause conditions. Unrestricted reconnection onset highlights possibilities for multiple X-lines or widespread transient reconnection at Ganymede. The reconnection rate is controlled by the ambient Jovian field orientation and hence driven by Jupiter’s rotation. Future progress on this topic is highly relevant for the JUpiter ICy moon Explorer (JUICE) mission.