The Arctic is undergoing profound environmental change at a time of
increasing geopolitical interests in the region. Loss of the Arctic
Ocean's sea ice cover is one of the most prominent signatures of global
climate change. As a direct result of the sea ice loss is the increasing
Arctic accessibility, in particular maritime shipping traffic. While the
near-term future of maritime routes is uncertain, a polar route has the
potential to reduce transit times of traditional shipping routes by up
to two weeks. In addition, opportunities for potential resource
extraction and expanding Arctic tourism offer new economic prospects for
some of the US and Canada's most isolated northern communities. This
research investigates the statistical relationship between navigational
conditions and maritime traffic in the Arctic. Specifically, this
research utilizes an eight-year observational dataset of Arctic vessel
traffic from 2013 to 2020, together with sea ice and atmospheric
reanalysis products, to understand the linkages between observed
maritime vessel traffic and sea ice and environmental changes. The
figure shows a heat map of the vessel traffic during the studied period.
Spatial features and temporal trends of the Arctic vessel traffic are
analyzed. Their correlation with navigational conditions like sea ice
concentration, wind waves, and sea surface temperature will be modeled
and quantified using Machine Learning algorithms. This policy and
security-relevant research will improve our understanding of recent and
future Arctic environmental change and its impacts on maritime
transport.