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Figure 1. a) Seismicity in a regional box of size 10o latitude by 10o longitude centered on Los Angeles, CA (Figure 1a). Large red circles represent earthquakes having magnitudes M>6.9. Smaller blue circles are earthquakes with M>5.9. b) The timeseries of earthquakes in that region since 1970, having magnitudes M > 3.29. Blue curve is the exponential moving average (EMA) with number of weights N = 36 [1]. c) Time series for the mean number \(\mu(t)\) of small earthquakes as a function of time. The mean is taken beginning in 1960, and is also shown since 1970. d) Optimized state variable timeseries \(\Theta(t)\). State variable is the EMA average of the small earthquakes, then adjusted using the current mean number \(\mu(2022)\)of small earthquakes, using a constant of proportionality \(\lambda\). e) The N -value and \(\lambda\)-value are obtained by optimizing the ROC skill, which is shown as the total area under the red curve. Skill for the random time series is shown as the area under the diagonal line, thus random skill = 0.5.