Fig. 5: Probability distribution function (PDF) of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region for the historical period 1870–2014. The black line gives the observed Niño3.4 PDF for the period 1870–2014 (Rayner et al., 2003), available for download from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA,https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Nino34/).The ensemble-mean of the five historical members is given in blue; their range (min/max) is shaded in light blue.