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\begin{document}

\title{An assessment of the temporal variability in the annual cycle of daily
Antarctic sea ice in the NCAR Community Earth System Model, Version 2: A
comparison of the historical runs with observations}



\author[1]{Marilyn Raphael}%
\author[2]{Mark S. Handcock}%
\author[3]{Marika M Holland}%
\author[3]{Laura L. Landrum}%
\affil[1]{University of California Los Angeles}%
\affil[2]{University of California - Los Angeles}%
\affil[3]{National Center for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{June 10, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Understanding the variability of Antarctic sea ice is an ongoing
challenge given the limitations of observed data. Coupled climate model
simulations present the opportunity to examine this variability in
Antarctic sea ice. Here, the daily sea ice extent simulated by the
newly-released National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth
System Model Version 2 (CESM2) for the historical period (1979-2014), is
compared to the satellite-observed daily sea ice extent for the same
period. The comparisons are made using a newly-developed suite of
statistical metrics that estimates the variability of the sea ice extent
on timescales ranging from the long-term decadal to the short term,
intra-day scales. Assessed are the annual cycle, trend, day-to-day
change, and the volatility, a new statistic that estimates the
variability at the daily scale. Results show that the trend in observed
daily sea ice is dominated by sub-decadal variability with a weak
positive linear trend superimposed. The CESM2 simulates this sub-decadal
variability with a strong negative linear trend superimposed. The
CESM2's annual cycle is similar in amplitude to the observed, a key
difference being the timing of ice advance and retreat. The sea ice
begins it advance later, reaches its maximum later and begins retreat
later in the CESM2. This is confirmed by the day-to-day change. Apparent
in all of the sea ice regions, this behavior suggests the influence of
the semi-annual oscillation of the circumpolar trough. The volatility,
which is associated with smaller scale dynamics such as storms, is
smaller in the CESM2 than observed.%
\end{abstract}%



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