5 CONCLUSIONS
Forest
loss has taken place in many areas of the world. Understanding the
spatial and temporal patterns of forest loss may not only advance the
forest transition theory but also provide practical guidelines for
preventing land degradation and promoting sustainable socioeconomic
development. The present study draws on datasets from multiple sources
to investigate land use change with an emphasis on forest change in
Zhejiang Province during 2000-2020 under the implementation of the
Balance of Arable Land System (BALS) policy. The investigation found
that there was a large decrease of forest area during the study period,
which is accompanied by expansion of urban land and shrinkage of
cultivated land. At the sub-provincial scale, such land use conversions
among different types induced by BALS occurred not in adjacent areas but
in distant places.
By relying on the telecoupling framework, we are able to better explain
land use and land cover change patterns and mechanisms. Using the
Hangzhou (west) and Lishui (south) municipalities as an illustration,
the encroachment of cultivated land by urban development in Hangzhou has
been “compensated” through agricultural expansion at the sacrifice of
deforestation in Lishui, according to the principle of balancing
cultivated land in BALS. This finding empirically supports the
telecoupling theory. Under this framework, BALS has evolved from
focusing on quantity protection to focusing on the “Trinity” of
quantity, quality, and ecological protection. Policymakers should be
mindful of forest losses and mechanisms behind such losses while
designing and implementing land-based policies and planning, especially
those involving societal and economic development and agricultural
protection. By fully considering the patterns of multiple land types
(e.g., urban, cropland, ecological land) and their relationships (e.g.,
the telecoupled interconnections), can a more comprehensive land use
policy be sophistically designed and appropriately executed to reach the
harmony among promoting development, securing food production, and
preventing land degradation. At
broader scales, this study further enriches the theory of forest
transition, providing a basis for future land use policies or decisions.