5 CONCLUSIONS

Forest loss has taken place in many areas of the world. Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of forest loss may not only advance the forest transition theory but also provide practical guidelines for preventing land degradation and promoting sustainable socioeconomic development. The present study draws on datasets from multiple sources to investigate land use change with an emphasis on forest change in Zhejiang Province during 2000-2020 under the implementation of the Balance of Arable Land System (BALS) policy. The investigation found that there was a large decrease of forest area during the study period, which is accompanied by expansion of urban land and shrinkage of cultivated land. At the sub-provincial scale, such land use conversions among different types induced by BALS occurred not in adjacent areas but in distant places.
By relying on the telecoupling framework, we are able to better explain land use and land cover change patterns and mechanisms. Using the Hangzhou (west) and Lishui (south) municipalities as an illustration, the encroachment of cultivated land by urban development in Hangzhou has been “compensated” through agricultural expansion at the sacrifice of deforestation in Lishui, according to the principle of balancing cultivated land in BALS. This finding empirically supports the telecoupling theory. Under this framework, BALS has evolved from focusing on quantity protection to focusing on the “Trinity” of quantity, quality, and ecological protection. Policymakers should be mindful of forest losses and mechanisms behind such losses while designing and implementing land-based policies and planning, especially those involving societal and economic development and agricultural protection. By fully considering the patterns of multiple land types (e.g., urban, cropland, ecological land) and their relationships (e.g., the telecoupled interconnections), can a more comprehensive land use policy be sophistically designed and appropriately executed to reach the harmony among promoting development, securing food production, and preventing land degradation. At broader scales, this study further enriches the theory of forest transition, providing a basis for future land use policies or decisions.