3.2 Sensitivity Analyses
We performed a series of one-way sensitivity analyses to discover the
effect of the different parameter’s uncertainty on the ICER. The Tornado
diagram shows the effect of those parameters that led to a change in the
ICER from big to small (Fig.2). In our model, the ICER was most
sensitive to variations in OS of NAC and AC and, when the medial OS of
NAC is 0.12 years more than AC, the NAC will be cost-effective at the
35,446 RMB threshold (Fig.3). The sensitivity analyses suggest that our
model was robust enough to handle to the uncertainty surrounding the
parameters of cost, base case probabilities, treatment time and utility
weight.
In PSA, AC was the dominant strategy in 64.3% of 10,000 Monte Carlo
simulations and, at the threshold of 35,446 RMB per QALY, there is a
54.1% probability that AC strategy is cost-effective. Fig.4 shows the
corresponding cost effectiveness acceptability curve for NAC and AC.
Therefore, the statement about basic
simulation regarding incremental costs, effectiveness and the ICER, is
stable.