bDepartamento de Microbiologia, Universidade
Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
*corresponding author
Juan Carlos González Perez-PhD
Avenida Antônio Carlos, 6627
Campus Pampulha 31270-901
Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
Email :
gonzalez@fisica.ufmg.br
The data that supports the findings of this study are available in the
supplemental material of this article, as well as the data obtained from
public sources were cited in the references section.
SummaryBy analysing the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of
Minas Gerais, Brazil, we showed the importance of considering the
sub-notification not only of deaths but also of infected cases. It was
shown that the largely used criteria of a historical all-deaths baseline
is not approachable in this case, where most of the deaths are
associated with causes that should decrease due to social distancing and
reduction of economic activities. A quite simple and intuitive model
based on the Gompertz function was applied to estimate excess deaths and
excess of infected cases. It fits well the data and predicts the
evolution of the epidemic adequately. Based on these analyses,
an excess of 21.638 deaths and
557.216 infected cases is predicted until the end of 2020, with an upper
bound of the case fatality rate of around 2.4 % and a prevalence of 2.6
%. The geographical distribution of cases and deaths and its ethnic
correlation are also presented. This study points out the necessity of
governmental and private organizations working together to improve
public awareness and stimulate social distancing to curb the viral
infection, especially in critical places with high poverty.
Keywords : COVID-19; Gompertz function; Minas Gerais;
sub-notification; ethnic distribution.