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Figure 1 . Time evolution of (a) the governmental infected cases
reported (open black squares), (b) deaths (open red circles) and (c)
social distancing (blue solid line) related to COVID-19 in Minas Gerais,
Brazil. The solid black and red lines in (a) and (b) correspond to the
fit of the model to the reported data. Dash dot lines in (a) correspond
to the projected daily number of infection cases (black line) and deaths
(red line). The dash line in (b) corresponds to the projected case
fatality rate (CFR).
Figure 2. Comparison between the weekly number of deaths from
all causes during the first 29 epidemiologic weeks of 2020 (solid lines)
regarding the same period in 2019 (dashed lines). The vertical dotted
line marks the COVID-19 epidemic starting in Minas Gerais. The grey area
represents the time delay to update the RO database.
Figure 3 . (a) Time evolution of excess of deaths (open black
squares), RO COVID-19 related deaths (open blue triangles) and
governmental COVID-19 deaths (open red circles). Solid lines correspond
to the best fit of the model to the data sets (see text for details).
(b) Calculated variation of the upper (red line) and lower (green line)
bounds of the sub-notification along 2020.
Figure 4 . (a) Weekly evolution of the cumulative number of SARS
cases in 2020 (open black squares) compared to 2019 (open red diamonds).
Black and red lines correspond to the best fit of the model to the
datasets (see text for details). (b) Calculated excess of COVID-19 cases
(open green stars) and COVID-19 governmental reports (open blue
triangles). Green and blue lines correspond to the best fit of the model
to the datasets. (c) Calculated sub-notification of COVID-19 cases
(black line) and CFR upper bound (red line).
Figure 5 . (a) Daily evolution of the cumulative number of
COVID-19 cases in black (open black squares) and white patients (open
blue circles). The solid lines correspond to the best fit of the model
to the datasets (see text for details). The dashed line corresponds to
the percentage of cases in black patients. (b) Daily evolution of the
cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19 in black (open black squares)
and white patients (open blue circles). The solid lines correspond to
the best fit of the model to the datasets (see text for details). The
dashed line corresponds to the percentage of deaths in black patients.
(c) Calculated CFR values in black (black line) and white (blue line)
patients, using the data presented in (a) and (b).
Figure 6. Heat map with all municipalities of Minas Gerais
informing (a) cases of COVID-19, (b) deaths from COVID-19, (c) cases
white patients, (d) deaths of white patients, (e) cases of black
patients, (f) deaths of black patients. Maps (g) and (h) show the
distribution of white and black inhabitants, respectively. All data have
been normalized per 100.000 inhabitants