ABSTRACT
Many articles clearly state that the birth rate is expected to drop under the covid-19 pandemic. Based on the past study, after the Spanish flu pandemic there was a surge called, Spanish flu baby boom. The strength of economy after the pandemic determined the size of the surge.
Meredith Wadman wrote a short article on the birth rate of the covid-19 pandemic1. Döring described a commentary article on how the covid-19 pandemic affecting our sexualities2. Miriam also mentioned how the covid-19 pandemic is affecting birthrates worldwide3. Brookings institution predicts the followings4:
  1. the covid-19 episode will likely lead to a large, lasting baby bust,
  2. the pandemic has thrust the country into an economic recession,
  3. economic reasoning and past evidence suggest that this will lead people to have fewer children,
  4. the decline in births could be on the order of 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births next year.
All articles1,2,3,4clearly state that the birth rate is expected to drop under the covid-19 pandemic.
We can sometimes learn from the past study. According to CDC on the Spanish flu pandemic (H1N1 virus), lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people–about a third of the world’s population at the time5. Over three waves of infections, the Spanish flu killed at least 50 million worldwide5. Based on the past study of the Spanish influenza pandemic, the birth rate was dropped during the pandemic6,7,8. After the pandemic there was a surge called, Spanish flu baby boom6,7,8. However, we don’t know when the covid-19 pandemic will be ended. The world population in 1918 was less than 2 billion while it is now nearly 7.8 billion. By the summer of 1919, the flu pandemic in US came to an end, as those that were infected either died or developed immunity9. We know the fact that the U.S. fertility rate is proportional to the strength of economy which can be generalized worldwide10. Based on the fact, the birth rate may be strongly influenced by the strength of economy after the pandemic. In other words, it will surge after the pandemic where the birth rate spike may be depending on the state of economy.
This research did not receive any specific funding. The authors declare no conflict of interest.
References:
  1. Meredith Wadman, COVID-19 unlikely to cause birth defects, but doctors await fall births, Science 07 Aug 2020: Vol. 369, Issue 6504, pp. 607
  2. Döring, N. How Is the COVID-19 Pandemic Affecting Our Sexualities? An Overview of the Current Media Narratives and Research Hypotheses.Arch Sex Behav (2020).https://doi.org/10.1007/s10508-020-01790-z
  3. Miriam Berger, Coronavirus baby boom or bust? How the pandemic is affecting birthrates worldwide, the Washington Post, July 15, 2020.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/07/15/coronavirus-baby-boom-or-bust-how-pandemic-is-affecting-birthrates-worldwide/
4. Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip B. Levine, “Half a million fewer children? The coming COVID baby bust”, June 15 2020.
https://www.brookings.edu/research/half-a-million-fewer-children-the-coming-covid-baby-bust/
5.https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
6. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/articles/trendsinbirthsanddeathsoverthelastcentury/2015-07-15
7. Mamelund, Svenn-Erik. “Can the Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918 Explain the Baby Boom of 1920 in Neutral Norway?” Population (English Edition, 2002-) , vol. 59, no. 2, 2004, pp. 229–260.JSTOR ,www.jstor.org/stable/3654904.
8. Siddharth Chandra et al., The 1918 influenza pandemic and subsequent birth deficit in Japan, DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH, vol.33, 11, pp. 313−326, 6 AUGUST 2015.
9. Spanish flu, https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic
10. Mark Mather, The Decline in U.S. Fertility, July 18, 2012. https://www.prb.org/us-fertility/