ASF entry risk assessment model
We used the risk assessment model that we previously developed (Sugiura
et al., 2020), reparametrizing the variables that are deemed to be
affected under the coronavirus pandemic, namely the number of air
travelers from China and the amount of food waste from restaurants. We
assumed that variables other than these two do not change even under the
coronavirus pandemic. The number of infected pig farms in China remained
more or less the same during the first four months of 2020 (OIE, 2020).
The simulation was performed using @Risk Version 7.6 (Palisade, Ithaca,
New York) within Microsoft® Excel 2013, and was run with 10,000
iterations using Latin Hybercube sampling for each simulation.