Parameter Description Mean 10% CI 90%CI
p Proportion of animals being female 0.666 0.640 0.692
q Proportion of females with kid 0.500 0.472 0.528
τ0 DOY when 50% shed for females without kid (days) 193.8 188.7 199.1
τM Shift in shedding date when male (days) -6.4 -8.4 -4.2
τK Shift in shedding date when with kid (days) 5.5 3.7 7.3
τY Logit of long-term trend in shedding date* 0.005 -0.004 0.015
τE Logit of elevation effect on shedding date* 0.009 0.005 0.014
τL Logit of latitude effect on shedding date* 0.005 0.000 0.009
α0 Shedding rate (% per day) 1.489 1.399 1.582
αY Logit of long-term trend in shedding rate* -0.024 -0.992 1.011
αE Logit of elevation effect on shedding rate* 0.054 -0.803 0.877
αL Logit of latitude effect on shedding rate* 1.101 0.169 2.046
φ Beta-binomial overdispersion term 0.265 0.246 0.286
στ Standard deviation of inter-annual shedding date (days) 13.5 9.3 18.0
σα Standard deviation of inter-annual shedding rate (% per day) 0.182 0.097 0.276