Figure 4: Observed and predicted shedding patterns. Panels correspond to the three animal states where sex and kid status are known. Each panel contains 40 lines that depict shedding patterns predicted by the model when parameters are randomly drawn from their posterior distribution; thus, their spread describe prediction uncertainty associated with the mean. Predictions are for 2018, for an animal at latitude 50 and elevation 2000m, which is consistent with the observed data (Figures 2B, 3). Circles depict shedding status from all photographs (i.e., across a range of years, latitudes and elevations) and are grey if sex or kid status is unknown. See Figure 2 for explanation of animal state.