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The short and long-term impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the prevalence of varicella in Xi'an during the COVID-19 pandemic
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  • Chunfu Zheng,
  • Yao Bai,
  • Li Shen,
  • Minghao Sun,
  • Zurong Yang,
  • Zhijun Chen,
  • Jinbo Zhai,
  • Mengzhou Xue,
  • Zhongjun Shao,
  • Kun Liu
Chunfu Zheng
University of Calgary
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Yao Bai
Xi'an Center for Disease Prevention and Control

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Li Shen
Wuhan University School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering
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Minghao Sun
Wuhan University School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering
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Zurong Yang
Fourth Military Medical University
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Zhijun Chen
Xi'an Center for Disease Prevention and Control
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Jinbo Zhai
Universities of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region
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Mengzhou Xue
The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University
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Zhongjun Shao
Fourth Military Medical University
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Kun Liu
Fourth Military Medical University
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Abstract

Varicella is a highly prevalent infectious disease with a similar transmission pathway to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, anti-COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been implemented to prevent the spread of the infection. This study aims to analyze varicella’s epidemiological characteristics and further investigate the effect of anti-COVID-19 NPIs on varicella in Xi’an, northwestern China. Based on the varicella surveillance data, search engine indices, meteorological factors from 2011 to 2021 in Xi’an, and different levels of emergency response to COVID-19 during the pandemic, we applied Bayesian Structural Time Series models and interrupted time series analysis to predict the counterfactual incidence of varicella and quantify the impact of varying NPIs intensities on varicella. From 2011 to 2021, varicella incidence increased, especially in 2019, with a high incidence of 111.69/100,000. However, there was a sharp decrease of 43.18% in 2020 compared with 2019, and the peak of varicella incidence in 2020 was lower than in previous years from the 21st to the 25th week. In 2021, the seasonality of varicella incidence gradually returned to a seasonal pattern in 2011-2019. The results suggest that anti-COVID-19 NPIs effectively reduce the incidence of varicella, and this reduction has spatiotemporal heterogeneity.
07 Feb 2023Submitted to Journal of Medical Virology
08 Feb 2023Submission Checks Completed
08 Feb 2023Assigned to Editor
08 Feb 2023Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
18 Feb 2023Reviewer(s) Assigned
06 Mar 2023Editorial Decision: Revise Major
23 May 20231st Revision Received
23 May 2023Submission Checks Completed
23 May 2023Assigned to Editor
23 May 2023Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
23 May 2023Reviewer(s) Assigned
06 Jun 2023Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
13 Jul 20232nd Revision Received
21 Jul 2023Submission Checks Completed
21 Jul 2023Assigned to Editor
21 Jul 2023Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
24 Jul 2023Reviewer(s) Assigned
24 Jul 2023Editorial Decision: Accept